The degree to which refugees will impact the labour market outcomes of the local population depends on the degree of substitutability between refugees and locals. We expect locals to move away from economic activities which could be easily done by refugees onto activities in which they have a competitive advantage. For instance, if positions in the formal sector (e.g. government jobs) are unavailable to refugees, then local workers could move into those positions.
This briefing is based on the articles “Labor Market Impacts of Forced Migration” and “The Labor Market Consequences of Hosting Refugees” by Isabel Ruiz and Carlos Vargas-Silva.
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